May 20, 2011

Weekly Trading Update - 16-20 May 2011

Well it's been another mediocre week this week. My main 4 hour trading system did generate one winning trade, but the Forex Morning Trade system, which lost 40 points last week, is set to have another losing week. I am still waiting for today's trade to reach it's conclusion (I need the price to go up to 1.6275 to hit the 40 point profit target), but at the moment it is either going to lose 80 points or 120 points (it turned out to be 120 points). I will update you with the result of this trade later, but these are the results from using this particular day trading system so far:

Monday: -40 points
Tuesday: -40 points
Wednesday: -40 points
Thursday: no trade
Friday: 0 (break-even)

As you can see, this is not good at all and I am now seriously considering whether I should continue using this system. It had a tremendous winning run for many months, but the GBP/USD has been difficult to trade this year (with the ADX staying below 20 for much of 2011 so far) and this is reflected in the results with more losing weeks than last year. It would also be nice not to have to get up at 6.15 every morning, which is another reason why I am considering abandoning this system.

The annoying thing is that I made money using all my own systems. My 4 hour system found a nice winning trade on the GBP/USD pair. This pair is now in a downward trend according to the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart, so I went short when the EMAs crossed downwards on the 4 hour chart, eventually opening a position at 1.6184 on Wednesday evening after a slight pull-back.

I had to wait a while but it eventually hit my initial 50 point target the next day, where I closed half the position. However after moving my stop loss to break-even, the price bounced back and quickly took out the second half of the trade at this break-even point.

There were also a few good breakout trades for this particular pair (where the overnight trading range is very small compared to the average daily range). I went short on Wednesday morning after the price broke below the range and below the pivot, and rode it all the way down to the S1 line for around 53 points, and this morning I went long after an upward breakout and closed the position at R1 for around 24 points.

Not every trade worked out though because I placed a similar breakout trade yesterday and had to take a 35 point loss after going short at 1.6151.

Finally as regards my share trading, it's been a great week overall. After a very nice rise in BP yesterday and today I have managed to bank some decent short-term gains, and I was automatically closed out on my main Barclays position for 10 points this morning as well.

So overall I finished up on the week but the Forex Morning Trade system cancelled out some of these gains unfortunately. Even if it only loses 80 points, which is looking likely, it has still had a really bad week. I think I will possibly trade it for one more week before making a final decision as to whether I will carry on using it.

Anyway have a great weekend and I will speak to you again soon.

(If you want to check out my main 4 hour trading system, you can access it for free when you subscribe to my newsletter. Simply fill in the short form above).

 

 

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1 Comment on Weekly Trading Update - 16-20 May 2011 »

May 26, 2011

Trevor @ 2:27 pm:

Last week was dire (flat) on the GBPUSD so you did well to squeeze out 50 points!

Perhaps you can write about the ADX indicator, so beloved of Bill Poulos, to advise when to stay out of a flat market.

As for systems, I've seen this so many times — including the gee-gees — they start out well but inevitably hit the long losing run which wipes out most gains. Sad but true. Human analysis and logic trumps all systems.

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