October 26, 2010
Bloomberg Median Forecasts - October 2010
I was looking through some pages on IG Index's site this afternoon and on one of the forex pages I found some Bloomberg Median Forecasts, which are essentially predictions from many different experts of where the major currency pairs will be at the end of the next three quarters. The Bloomberg Median Forecasts are a median figure of all the results, and the results are as follows:
Q4 2010: 1.58
Q1 2011: 1.58
Q2 2011: 1.59
Q4 2010: 1.35
Q1 2011: 1.35
Q2 2011: 1.35
Q4 2010: 84.00
Q1 2011: 85.50
Q2 2011: 88.00
So to summarize, most of the people asked think that the GBP/USD is likely to be close to it's current level of 1.5825 in the coming quarters, whilst they are predicting that the EUR/USD will be slightly lower than it is now at 1.35. For the USD/JPY pair, however, these same experts believe that the US dollar will show some strength and rebound from it's recent sharp downturn.
I personally would not argue with these forecasts. I too think the USD/JPY will be between 85 and 90 in around 6-9 months time, although I think the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD will be higher than they are now. Looking at the long-term charts I would think they would probably be around 1.45 and 1.65-1.70 respectively in Q2 2011.
Of course none of this really matters unless you are a long-term forex trader, but it's always an interesting exercise to make some predictions and look back on them afterwards to see how right (or wrong) you were.
(Here's the link if you want to check out these long-term forecasts for yourself. The page is updated twice a day and there are sometimes a few other pairs listed on this page as well).