April 23, 2010

Weekly Trading Update - 19-23 April 2010

You may recall that last week I was hoping that the GBP/USD would fall to around 1.52-1.53 before rising again so that the EMAs would cross upwards and we would have a high probability trading set-up. Frustratingly although this scenario played out perfectly this week, it didn't quite go according to plan.

I actually traded this pair twice. The first time the EMAs crossed upwards was on Tuesday and I went long at 1.5380. Sadly this upward move fizzled out fairly quickly and I was stopped out for a 40 point loss.

I then went long again on Wednesday morning at 1.5375 when the EMA (5) moved upwards once more (it wasn't a crossover as such, but it was good enough for me to re-enter a position). This one was more profitable. I closed half the position for 50 points and let the other half run. Sadly I was holding out for at least 1.5500 but it never got there and it ended up hitting my stop loss, which I had moved up to break-even.

So I was actually down on these two trades overall, but there were two other trades which helped push me into profit for the week. They both took place on Tuesday morning.

I went long on the USD/JPY at 92.80 after the EMAs crossed upwards on the 4 hour chart. I then closed half the position for 40 points and let the other half run, moving my stop loss to break-even. Unfortunately this stop loss was also triggered, but my EUR/GBP trade was much more profitable.

I went short on this one at 0.8780 after the EMAs crossed downwards on the 4 hour chart and ended up taking 40 points with the first half of the position and 80 points on the second after the price touched 0.8700. This turned out to be premature but to be honest I'm just relieved to be in profit for the week, even if it is a fairly modest one.

It was the GBP/USD trades that disappointed me the most because these were real high probability trades, but it wasn't to be. Hopefully the really big move upwards will come next week sometime. I'm also hopeful that the EUR/USD will follow suit in the near future as well.

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