October 6, 2009
AUD/USD Still In A Perfect Long-Term Uptrend
With the AUD/USD pair currently making new highs, at least for 2009, I thought it was worth discussing the long-term chart because I think this is a perfect example of a currency pair that's in a perfect long-term uptrend. To show you what I mean, I have included a price chart of the AUD/USD pair below along with the various reasons why this has been a perfect pair to trade for any long-term trend followers.
- The EMA (200) has been rising steadily since the uptrend begun.
- The price has remained above the Supertrend indicator (which has therefore remained green throughout).
- The price has always bounced upwards whenever it has got close to the long-term trendline.
- The EMA (20), ie the thin green line, has remained above the EMA (50), ie the red line, at all times.
- The TRIX indicator (not included on this chart) has never fallen below 0 since the uptrend started.
- Finally if you are a Marketclub subscriber you will see that the last monthly trade triangle was a buy signal on April 12th at 0.7268 and has remained in place ever since with the price now over 1600 pips higher.
So looking ahead it's clear that the long-term uptrend is still very much intact. However if you're looking for value you may want to wait for the price to pull-back to the long-term trend line before entering any new long positions.
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1 Comment on AUD/USD Still In A Perfect Long-Term Uptrend »
October 13, 2009
mike @ 8:18 pm:
Dear James,
With regard to your 4hr method. here's an interesting
cross-referemce study on this morning's chart of the pound/
yen.
Utilizing a 5-minute bar, in antipation of a nearby EMA cross in the 4hr bar, I waS able to enter a long position
with some degree of confidence at the proximate time of
10:50AM as the EMAs crossed in the 5 minute bar.
In the 4hr bar the two EMAs crossed at the proximate time
of 12:20AM.
Because I utilized the timeliness of the 5-minute bar in
anticipation of positve clues given by the 4hr bar and the
fact that the market had shifted from resistance to support
at the 10:50AM time juncture, I was able therefore to enter
the market earlier and earn a good deal more in terms of points. So the 5 minute bar does indeed have its advantages
in terms of timeliness to be sure.
However, I don't think I would've taken that 5 minute
entry without the knowledge I derived from the 4 hr study
as I perceived that it would eventually cross its
EMAs near term. I now believe that the 4 hour study is a
significant leading indicator that can be utilized for earlier entry points in the 5 minute bar.
Furthermore, what makes the 4 hr study unique is the fact that it reveaLs, better than any other time frame, more
clearly and precisely, the major time pivots when all the
most significant events in the trading day actually occur,
including the rollover junctures.
So what we have here is not only a credible core trade tool,
but also a credible leading indicator if one can learn to
use it as such. You may wish to post this commentary or not.
If you wish not to do so, I would very much like to know
your thoghts on whatI have written here. Please E-mail me.
Kindest regards,
Mike