April 21, 2009
EUR/USD Falls Below 1.30 - How Much Further Could It Fall?
The EUR/USD closed below 1.30 yesterday and currently trades at 1.2988 at the time of writing. It peaked at around 1.3740 last month but failed to break through the 200 day EMA and has since fallen sharply. So how much further could it potentially fall?
Well there's no doubt that this pair is now in a firm downward trend. The Supertrend indicator is currently red (indicating a bearish trend) on the weekly, monthly and quarterly charts, and furthermore as you can see from the chart below, it has just turned red on the daily chart as well.
You can also see that the EMA (5) (blue) and EMA (20) (green) are both crossing below the EMA (50) (red) so this is another sign that there could be further downside to come.
I've read a few analyst reports recently that all predict significant falls in the EUR/USD pair based on fundamental analysis, but technical analysis would also seem to back this up as well.
Of course we may all be completely wrong and it could bounce back above 1.30 but my own view is that the EUR/USD is likely to fall to around the 1.25-1.26 level in the near future, and possibly even test it's recent low which is around 1.2457.