October 8, 2008

AUD/USD Pair Drops Nearly 2000 Points In Just 2 Weeks

I've got a quick observation about the AUD/USD currency pair that I want to share with you today.

I've just noticed that the AUD/USD is now trading at a 5 year low and has fallen nearly 2000 points in 2 weeks. In percentage terms it's one hell of a fall. Anyway what I find annoying is the fact that I don't actually trade this pair and yet my main 4 hour trading strategy would have captured almost all of this points move.

The daily Supertrend has been signalling a bearish trend since the end of July and using the 4 hour charts my favoured EMAs crossed downwards on September 26 and if you had entered a position on the pullback at around 8320, you would have seen it drop all the way down to 6450, and it could yet go down even further.

Anyway I'm not trying to preach to you or anything because I know that if I had traded that position myself I would have closed it out ages ago probably for no more than 100 or 200 points at the most, and even that would probably be after already closing half the position for 40 or 50 points.

But the main point I want to get across is that sometimes it pays to let your winning trades run. It's something that I myself find very difficult to do because I hate to see strong winning positions potentially turn into break-even or losing trades but it's how the really big gains are made in this game.

 

 

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